The resumption of wide-ranging American sanctions on Iran promises economic uncertainty for the Islamic Republic’s neighbors in the Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.
Washington’s goal of reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero will not directly impact any of three Caucasus states, as none of them imports Iranian crude. All three, however, have to various extents relied on Iran for natural gas, and stand to be affected – if only by uncertainty until the exact scope of the sanctions becomes clearer.
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton recently visited all three countries to try to shore up support for Washington’s efforts to isolate Tehran, though his results were inconclusive. When Washington imposed the new round of sanctions on November 5 it exempted eight countries, including neighboring Turkey, but none of the Caucasus states were spared.
As a major exporter of both crude oil and natural gas, and a sometime importer of Iranian gas, Azerbaijan’s position is most complex.