Following two months of rising uncertainty after President Trump decided to withdraw from the nuclear deal despite Iran’s continued compliance with its commitments, the remaining parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) assembled in Vienna on Friday. The meeting of foreign minister was convened at Iran’s request.
Iranian expectations of the meeting centered on an “economic package” that was to be offered by Europe—with the support of Russia and China—to keep Iran in the nuclear deal. As Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif made clear in a tweet prior to the meeting, in the view of Iran, “sanctions and JCPOA compliance are mutually exclusive.” In short, if Europe, Russia, and China are to expect Iran to remain committed to the nuclear deal, they must neutralize the negative effects of US secondary sanctions.
Up until last week the foremost concern had been whether Iran would be able to maintain viable banking channels in the face of a more aggressive US sanctions posture, especially given the limited progress that had been made in reintegrating Iran into the global financial system since Implementation Day. Yet, the announcement that the US would not be providingsignificant reduction exceptions to allow Iran’s oil customers to maintain their imports when sanctions return in November, will prove Iran’s most significant challenge. Iran relies on oil exports for 40 percent of government revenue.
Iran engaged in expectation management regarding the package ahead of the meeting, perhaps indicating that the Rouhani government has finally learned the consequences of overselling the economic promises made during JCPOA-related talks. The president’s office released two statements Thursday evening indicating that Rouhani had held phone calls with his German and French counterparts. Most pointedly, Rouhani told Macron that the economic package prepared by Europe “does not include all of [Iran’s] demands,” but that Iran remained hopeful that the joint commission meeting would help fill the gaps.