The fate of the international nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), looks increasingly uncertain in light of repeated attacks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to walk out of the deal unless Congress and European counterparts agree to “fix it.” The recent appointments of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton—both vocal critics of the JCPOA and widely seen as staunch hawks on Iran—make it less likely that Trump will keep the United States in the deal at his next decision point by 12 May. Faced now with the likelihood of U.S. withdrawal, Europe must decide how far to go to try to preserve the agreement in the face of renewed U.S. sanctions.
Against this backdrop, the forthcoming visits to Washington by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Markel come at a time of great importance for the nuclear agreement, regional security, and transatlantic relations. Macron’s meeting with Trump will be of particular significance, given the good rapport between the two leaders. Syria will likely feature at the top of the agenda, but the visit will offer an urgent opportunity to remind President Trump of the importance of the nuclear deal for his European allies.