Three years ago, Iran and global powers implemented the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), curtailing the country’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal continues to hang together—but only just. There are growing indications of signatory states’ fatigue and frustration in attempting to prevent the collapse of the JCPOA, following the US withdrawal from it last May. In this climate, it is important for the deal’s stakeholders to remember why it remains valuable:
- The JCPOA is the product of more than a decade of negotiation. The West worried that Iran’s expanding nuclear programme posed a major nuclear proliferation risk. Most troublingly for Europe, there was a possibility that the United States, Israel, or both would launch military attacks on a country of 80 million people. After the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, Europeans wanted to avoid further instability in their neighborhood.
- The JCPOA is imperfect for all sides. But it centers on a political compromise that addresses the core concerns of both Iran and P5+1 (the US, France, the United Kingdom, China, Russia, and Germany). According to US estimates, the JCPOA increased the period it would take Iran to create a nuclear bomb – its “break-out time” – from two or three months to roughly one year. In return, Tehran received relief from UN, EU, and US nuclear-related sanctions. Although the US has reimposed the sanctions it originally lifted under the JCPOA, the UN and the EU have refrained from doing so.