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Commentary: Traders Bet Iran Sanctions Will Leave Market Short of Crude

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil traders have become much more concerned in recent weeks about the potential impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and the effect on the availability of crude at the end of the year.

Brent futures for November have moved to a premium of 45 cents a barrel over the December contract, in a sharp reversal from early last month, when the earlier contract traded at a 20 cent discount.

The gyrations in the futures curve are linked closely to traders’ perceptions of the availability of seaborne crude once sanctions are re-imposed from early November.

The November-December calendar spread moved into an increasing premium (backwardation) between July 2017 and May 2018, reflecting the overall tightening of the oil market.

Rapid growth in consumption, output restraint by OPEC and its allies as well as unexpected disruptions to production in Venezuela and some African countries all helped to reduce excess oil inventories.